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  • Bio/Chem Safety Index against AI capabilities, 2025 to 2027High risk of bio/chemweapons of mass destructionDeepSeek-V4-Pro · Apr 2026closed-frontier capabilitiesopen-frontier capabilitiesopen-weight safety0.50.60.70.80.91.01201351501651801852025Q2Q3Q42026Q2Q3Q42027Bio/Chem Safety Index (BCSI)Epoch AI Capabilities Index (ECI)
    closed-weight ECIopen-weight ECIBCSI (this paper)forecast

    Capability curves use Epoch AI ECI for major closed- and open-weight releases, plotted at official release dates. The BCSI series is this post's Bio/Chem Safety Index (BCSI = 1 − mean(BRI, CRI)) under the DeepSeek judge; the hatched region marks BCSI below 0.5.

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